Dr. Comfort is a Principle Scientific Enablement Director for Roche in the Science Enablement and Process group, leading innovation work supporting Pharmacovigilance. He is a Board Certified Neurologist with 20+ years combined biopharma industry/regulatory experience including roles as former Medical Reviewer at the US FDA, Clinical Research and Safety at J&J, Anesiva, KCI, Cyberonics, Adaptix, and Genentech. Dr. Comfort’s current work focuses on combining machine-learning models and decision analysis techniques to evaluate Drug-Adverse Event causality and predict Project/Phase Probability of Success. His most recent work developing simple Bayesian models to estimate probability of success was published in Jan 2024 Foresight #72. He published his first book in 2020 on mathematical estimation in healthcare: How Much Is that Cure in the Window? Simple Math Solutions for Complicated Problems in Biology, Medicine, and Healthcare.